The odds of scoring a hole in one are hard to estimate. Many golfers go their whole lives in search of their first. Others seem to get them more often. Saturday was my second, the first coming four years ago on number 4. In 1999, Golf Digest reported, "One insurance company puts a PGA Tour pro's chances at 1 in 3,756 and an amateur's at 1 in 12,750."That same issue reported that the "odds of an amateur making two holes-in-one in a round are 9,222,500 to 1."Ireland's National Hole in One Club puts the odds a little longer for one ace: "The estimated odds of acing a hole with any given swing are one in 33,000."
One would think that talent and skill might improve one's chances of scoring an ace. While it surely doesn't hurt, there seems to be no direct correlation between ability and likelihood of scoring a hole in one. There are touring pros who have never had one and high handicappers who have achieved the feat several times. Golf Digest breaks the odds by ability down as follows:
- Tour player making an ace: 3,000 to 1
- Low-handicapper making an ace: 5,000 to 1
- Average player making an ace: 12,000 to 1
- Average player acing a 200-yard hole: 150,000 to 1
- Two players from the same foursome acing the same hole: 17 million to 1
- One player making two holes-in-one in the same round: 67 million to 1