The Hole Truth about Holes in One

Last Saturday I got to experience a thrill that every golfer hopes for: a hole in one! I'd like to say it was an amazingly well struck shot, that it arced beautifully against the sky, dropped gently on the green and rolled purposefully into the cup. Actually it was hit a little thin, hit the bank above the gully trap on six, popped up into the air, and skipped twice before hitting the flag and coming to rest in the hole. No matter. There are no points for style; its the result that matters. I confess my first thought was "Oh no. No one is going to believe this!" for it was late and I was playing alone. Fortunately, the couple ahead of me on the seventh tee witnessed the event. Their excitement at seeing the ace was almost greater than mine in making it.

The odds of scoring a hole in one are hard to estimate. Many golfers go their whole lives in search of their first. Others seem to get them more often. Saturday was my second, the first coming four years ago on number 4. In 1999, Golf Digest reported, "One insurance company puts a PGA Tour pro's chances at 1 in 3,756 and an amateur's at 1 in 12,750."That same issue reported that the "odds of an amateur making two holes-in-one in a round are 9,222,500 to 1."Ireland's National Hole in One Club puts the odds a little longer for one ace: "The estimated odds of acing a hole with any given swing are one in 33,000."

One would think that talent and skill might improve one's chances of scoring an ace. While it surely doesn't hurt, there seems to be no direct correlation between ability and likelihood of scoring a hole in one. There are touring pros who have never had one and high handicappers who have achieved the feat several times. Golf Digest breaks the odds by ability down as follows:

• Tour player making an ace: 3,000 to 1


• Low-handicapper making an ace: 5,000 to 1


• Average player making an ace: 12,000 to 1

• Average player acing a 200-yard hole: 150,000 to 1


• Two players from the same foursome acing the same hole: 17 million to 1

• One player making two holes-in-one in the same round: 67 million to 1 

 Although the par 3 threes at Links are both relatively short holes, it seem the chances of patrons making a hole in one remain quite a long shot. The record for most hole in ones at Links by a single player is currently three. Sitting at 2, I'm potentially only one swing away from tying it every time I play. I like to say that if you take care of the course, the course will take care of you. I guess I'd better be extra kind to the greens at 4 and 6 from now on!